Challenging Supermassive Black-Hole Binary Candidates
I am developing a framework for asking whether proposed supermassive black-hole binaries remain consistent with pulsar-timing-array data—even when the data do not contain a significant gravitational-wave detection.
Beyond detection and non-detection
A non-detection does not automatically falsify an electromagnetic binary candidate. The relevant question is whether the candidate’s predicted gravitational-wave parameters are compatible with the probability distribution inferred from pulsar timing. I use posterior-tension veto tests to make that comparison quantitative.
Candidate and cross-PTA tests
The study applies the framework to 3C 66B, SDSS J1536+0441, and SDSS J0729+4008. It also compares targeted posteriors from different pulsar timing arrays, providing a diagnostic for data-set consistency and sensitivity to noise modelling.
The current analysis finds no compelling gravitational-wave evidence for the three candidates. The inferred tension ranges from negligible to modest, illustrating why a probabilistic compatibility test is more informative than merely placing upper limits.
This project manuscript has been submitted to a journal; PPTA policy requires paper acceptance before posting to arXiv; a public paper link will be added when it becomes available.